California’s jet fuel supply is facing significant challenges as a combination of refinery closures and global energy disruptions exacerbated by the Middle East conflict threaten to create shortages across the West Coast this summer. The state’s reliance on imported fuel, coupled with the recent shutdowns of major refineries, has heightened concerns over disruptions to air travel and economic activity.

Refinery Closures Exacerbate Supply Challenges

The Phillips 66 Los Angeles refinery and Valero Energy’s Benicia refinery near San Francisco—which together accounted for nearly 20% of California’s oil-refining capacity—have recently closed. Valero is also considering the future of its Wilmington refinery near Los Angeles. These closures coincide with Asia’s own fuel shortages, which stem from its reliance on Middle Eastern oil supplies. Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, warned, "If we don’t have some concrete [peace] deal here in the next three weeks, then I’m really nervous for the West Coast this summer in terms of jet fuel."

Impact on Air Travel and Economy

Airlines are already feeling the pinch. Norse Atlantic Airways canceled all its summer flights from Los Angeles International Airport (LAX), while Delta Air Lines and Air Canada have cut some U.S. routes. United Airlines has raised fares by up to 20% and is proactively canceling flights during off-peak times. Spirit Airlines, struggling with soaring fuel prices, may require a federal bailout to stay afloat. De Haan noted that jet fuel shortages could lead to widespread flight cancellations, particularly at major West Coast hubs like LAX, San Francisco, and Seattle.

"I would look for a lot of route cancellations potentially this summer," De Haan said.

Long-Term Solutions Still Years Away

Efforts to address California’s fuel supply challenges are underway, including plans for new pipelines from Phillips 66. However, these projects are not expected to come online until 2029 at the earliest. The California Energy Commission has stated that jet fuel stocks remain within historic norms, though supplies are tight. For now, travelers can expect higher prices and adjusted schedules, but the broader risks of physical shortages loom if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. The Trump administration’s temporary waiver of the Jones Act, which allows cargo ships to move more freely between U.S. ports, may provide some relief.