China has intensified its diplomatic efforts in the ongoing Iran conflict, proposing a five-point peace plan that has garnered support from Pakistan and Gulf nations while opposing any United Nations resolution to forcibly open the Strait of Hormuz. This move underscores Beijing's ambition to assert itself as a global leader, though experts question its substantive impact.
China’s Diplomatic Push
Sun Yun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center, stated, 'The war with Iran is the priority of all countries in and outside the region. It is an opportunity China will not miss to demonstrate its leadership and diplomatic initiative.' However, former U.S. diplomat Danny Russel dismissed China’s efforts as 'performative,' likening them to its 2023 Ukraine peace plan, which he described as 'filled with platitudes but never acted on.'
'Its narrative is that while Washington is reckless, aggressive, and heedless of the cost to others, China is a principled and responsible champion of peace,' Russel said.
U.S. Reaction
The Trump administration remains skeptical of China’s mediation efforts. U.S. officials, speaking anonymously, indicated little enthusiasm for boosting China's international stature or allowing it to claim success in the Middle East. One official described the administration’s position as 'agnostic,' neither endorsing nor rejecting China’s proposal, though this could change if President Trump weighs in before his planned summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Economic Considerations
China has minimized its exposure to the Strait of Hormuz disruption by diversifying energy sources and reducing reliance on fossil fuels. However, analysts warn that a prolonged conflict could severely impact China's export-heavy economy. 'An escalation of the conflict will start to harm Chinese interests,' Russel noted, citing potential energy price shocks and shipping disruptions.