The West's longstanding assumption of air dominance in military conflicts is no longer a certainty, according to Air Vice-Marshal Ian 'Cab' Townsend, assistant chief of the air staff of the British Royal Air Force. Speaking at the Royal Aeronautical Society, Townsend emphasized that 'control of the air is not a given,' particularly in the context of modern warfare where drones, missiles, and dense air defenses have significantly complicated the battlefield.
'Control of the air is the duty of an air force. With it, anything is possible. Without it, everything is dangerous,' Townsend said.
The ongoing war in Ukraine serves as a stark reminder of this challenge, with neither Ukraine nor Russia achieving full air superiority. This lack of control has contributed to a brutal war of attrition, with static front lines and limited mobility for ground forces. The inability to safely operate aircraft near the front has deprived ground troops of critical firepower and protection.
A Changing Battlefield
Since the Cold War, Western militaries have largely fought weaker adversaries, relying on overwhelming air superiority to suppress enemy defenses. However, conflicts with major powers like Russia or China would present a vastly different scenario. 'The modern integrated air missile defense operating environment is becoming increasingly complex and ambiguous,' Townsend noted, highlighting the need for relentless effort to maintain air control.
Historically, fighting without air dominance has resulted in higher costs, complexity, and casualties. The Ukraine conflict underscores these risks, with both sides struggling to achieve effective control of the air. 'Throughout my career, the UK and most of our allies have been focused on conflicts of choice far from home with a secure home base,' Townsend added. 'That safety could disappear in a large-scale war involving long-range missiles.'