The US-Iran ceasefire has failed to restore normal shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz, leaving one of the world's most critical oil chokepoints largely immobilized. According to maritime intelligence firm Windward, vessels must still coordinate with Iranian forces to transit, maintaining tight control over the waterway.
Limited Transit Conditions
'Transit conditions, toll arrangements, and the legal framework for passage remain undefined. The strait has not reopened — it is in a supervised pause,' Windward stated in its April 8 report. On the day before the ceasefire was announced, only 11 vessels transited the strait, a fraction of the more than 100 ships that typically passed daily prior to the conflict.
'Coordination with Iranian armed forces is still required for all transits,' Windward noted. 'Iran has confirmed this operates within technical limitations without specifying what those are.'
Shippers remain cautious. Movements are dominated by smaller, risk-tolerant operators, while major oil firms and global shipping companies have yet to return, citing insurance constraints and war-risk coverage issues.
Economic Impact
Approximately 3,200 vessels carrying 20,000 seafarers remain stranded west of Hormuz as operators assess risks. Windward predicts it could take weeks to move stranded cargoes and months for global trade to recover to pre-crisis levels.
Ellen Fraser, an energy analyst at global consultancy Baringa, said, 'It’s unlikely ships will move quickly — much as there is a lot of pent-up demand to get these cargoes moving, risks will need to be managed carefully given the lives and costs in play.'
Oil prices remain elevated, with Brent crude futures trading around $97 per barrel and US West Texas Intermediate futures at $97.53 per barrel, reflecting ongoing market uncertainty.