The Trump administration is preparing for the potential collapse of Cuba's communist regime as early as this summer, war-gaming military response plans if the island descends into chaos. While President Trump has not authorized an invasion and prefers a peaceful transition, the administration continues to push economic sanctions to strangle the Havana regime.
Accelerationism in Action
A senior administration official described the strategy as 'accelerationism,' aimed at hastening societal collapse without immediate regime termination. 'There's a method to this. It's in stages,' the official said. The administration is leveraging sanctions and diplomatic pressure to destabilize Cuba's government, focusing on economic tools over military intervention.
Cuba's Economic Lifeline Cut
Central to this strategy is severing Cuba's economic lifeline, particularly its reliance on Venezuela. Following the U.S. raid that captured Venezuelan socialist leader Nicolás Maduro in January, Venezuela's free oil shipments to Cuba ceased, plunging the island into deeper economic crisis. 'We have a pretty deep toolbox, especially when it comes to sanctions and enforcing them. More is on the way,' another senior official noted.
Military Preparedness
Last month, U.S. Southern Command conducted a multiagency tabletop exercise to prepare for potential military action in Cuba. While no invasion is planned, officials discussed scenarios involving drones, unrest, and extreme heat, with sources indicating readiness for any directive from the president.
"Everything is on the table, but no invasion is planned or imminent," a senior official said. "When POTUS says go, we're ready for anything."
Secondary Sanctions Bite
On May 1, Trump signed an executive order imposing secondary sanctions targeting companies doing business with Cuba's military-industrial umbrella, GAESA. This led to the suspension of operations by Canadian mining company Sherritt International and shipping giants CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd, with further withdrawals expected from financial and hotel companies in Spain, Panama, and Mexico.
The administration's approach remains one of escalating pressure, with officials emphasizing that 'classic Trump' strategy: apply pressure, watch the response, and apply more pressure.