As the ceasefire brokered two weeks ago between the U.S. and Iran nears its expiration, Trump administration envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, alongside Vice President JD Vance, are racing against the clock to finalize a deal in Islamabad. The stakes are immense: a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil remains stranded in the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran holds a significant stockpile of highly enriched uranium, nearing weapons-grade levels.
‘Tethered to a Galaxy Far, Far Away’
Former U.S. diplomats express skepticism about the administration’s approach. Aaron David Miller, a veteran State Department advisor, described the process as "tethered to a galaxy far, far away, not to the realities back here on planet Earth." Miller, along with former Ambassador Dennis Ross and Harvard Law’s Robert Mnookin, doubts Kushner and Witkoff’s ability to navigate the complexities of nuclear diplomacy.
‘If they were succeeding in these negotiations, my view would be much more charitable,’ Miller noted.
Iran reportedly views Kushner and Witkoff as unserious and too closely aligned with Israel, preferring Vance to lead the talks. Vance’s reported opposition to the initial decision to go to war has lent him credibility in Tehran’s eyes, though Miller pointed out that even this dynamic reflects a "dysfunctional system."
The Stakes: Energy Crisis and Nuclear Proliferation
A failed deal could escalate tensions further. Iran currently possesses enough enriched uranium for approximately 15 nuclear bombs, according to Ross. Trump has threatened severe retaliation, including bombing Iranian infrastructure, if negotiations collapse. While reopening the Strait of Hormuz would provide temporary relief, Ross emphasized that restoring the status quo ante is not a victory.
‘You just got it back to status quo ante,’ Ross said.
For a true strategic win, Ross argued that Iran must permanently halt enrichment activities and remove its uranium stockpile—a scenario unlikely to materialize. Instead, partial downblending of Iran’s uranium stockpile appears to be the most plausible outcome, leaving the potential for nuclear capability intact.
With time running out, the Trump administration faces a critical test of its diplomatic acumen—and the global energy market hangs in the balance.