Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf declared Wednesday that three clauses of the 10-point ceasefire framework with the United States had been violated, citing ongoing Israeli strikes in Lebanon, a downed drone over Iran’s Fars Province, and Tehran’s claim of denied uranium enrichment rights. Ghalibaf stated, 'In such a situation, a bilateral ceasefire or negotiations is unreasonable,' signaling immediate challenges to the fragile agreement.
Lebanon as Flashpoint
The conflict in Lebanon has become the most contentious issue, with Israel conducting its largest wave of strikes against Hezbollah targets. The Israeli military reported hitting over 100 command centers and military sites in ten minutes, resulting in significant casualties. Lebanese health officials confirmed at least 112 deaths and 837 injuries, while civil defense estimates placed the toll higher.
'The Iran–U.S. Ceasefire terms are clear and explicit: the U.S. must choose—ceasefire or continued war via Israel. It cannot have both,' Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi wrote on X.
The White House, however, maintains that Lebanon is not part of the ceasefire agreement. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt reiterated, 'Lebanon is not part of the cease-fire. That has been relayed to all parties in the cease-fire.'
Market Response
Despite the geopolitical turmoil, markets remained largely unfazed. Crude oil prices saw a slight increase, while global equities dipped only 0.3%. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for oil shipments, remained partially blocked, with just four tanker transits recorded.
Negotiations between the U.S. and Iran are set to resume in Islamabad on Saturday, with both sides working to reconcile their differing proposals. President Trump dismissed any framework other than his own, writing on Truth Social, 'Numerous Agreements, Lists, and Letters are being sent out by people that have absolutely nothing to do with the U.S.A. / Iran Negotiation.'
The escalating violence in Lebanon and Iran’s accusations of U.S. non-compliance threaten to derail the ceasefire entirely, leaving the broader region on edge.