Anthropic, a leading AI research company, has issued a stark warning: the United States must act swiftly to maintain its dominance in AI technology over China. In a detailed analysis, the company outlined key policy measures to secure a one- to two-year lead in frontier AI capabilities, stressing that the window of opportunity is rapidly closing.
The AI Race: US vs. China
Anthropic highlighted two scenarios for the AI landscape in 2028: one where the US successfully restricts China's access to American AI compute, and another where it does not. The company warned that China is closing the gap through loose controls on chip exports and distillation attacks, which involve using advanced AI models to train smaller, less sophisticated ones.
If the US and its allies act now to address both issues, it may be possible to lock in a 12-24 month lead in frontier capabilities,
stated Anthropic in its report. The company emphasized that securing this lead is crucial not only for national security but also for ensuring the safe development of AI technologies. A neck-and-neck race between American and Chinese AI labs could undermine industry and government-led safety efforts, pushing both sides to release untested models hastily.
To counter these risks, Anthropic called for stronger chip export controls, increased enforcement budgets, and measures to block distillation attacks by Chinese AI labs. The company also urged policymakers to avoid complacency, arguing that the US must not squander its existing advantage.
The Biden administration first imposed export controls on American chips to China in 2022, and the Trump administration has since tightened these regulations. However, loopholes persist, with Chinese actors allegedly smuggling advanced Nvidia chips by relabeling them. Despite these efforts, some experts, like former ByteDance engineer Zhang Chi, argue that China is falling further behind due to a lack of high-quality data and access to advanced chips.
Anthropic's call to action comes as geopolitical tensions between the US and China continue to escalate, making the race for AI supremacy a focal point of national strategy.