The ASEAN+3 region, comprising Southeast Asia, China, Japan, and South Korea, is projected to grow at 4% annually in 2026 and 2027, according to the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO). While the forecast remains unchanged, economists note that the ongoing conflict in Iran has dampened potential growth, particularly by disrupting global energy supplies through the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Southeast Asia Emerges as Key Driver
AMRO predicts that ASEAN economies will outpace the broader region, with growth rates of 4.6% in 2026 and 4.8% in 2027. In contrast, China, Japan, and South Korea—collectively referred to as the "plus-three" economies—are expected to grow at 3.8% annually over the same period. Vietnam stands out as a manufacturing hub, projected to grow at 7.4% in 2026 and 7.1% in 2027, while Cambodia continues its diversification into garment and manufacturing sectors with growth rates of 4.9% and 5.2%, respectively.
"The Middle East conflict has shifted the balance of risks to the downside," said Dong He, AMRO’s chief economist.
Despite the geopolitical challenges, AMRO economists remain optimistic, citing Southeast Asia’s deepening role in global supply chains and resilient trade networks. However, they caution that nations reliant on energy imports must diversify their energy mixes and invest in infrastructure to mitigate future disruptions.