Control over the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's nuclear capabilities remain critical obstacles preventing progress toward a peace deal between the U.S. and Iran, according to Robert Pape, a University of Chicago professor and founding director of the Chicago Project on Security and Threats.
Strategic Chokepoint at Risk
The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway through which nearly a third of the world's seaborne oil passes, has long been a flashpoint in U.S.-Iran relations. Iran has repeatedly threatened to disrupt shipping in the strait, while the U.S. has maintained a military presence in the region to ensure the free flow of commerce. This zero-sum dynamic has stymied diplomatic efforts, as neither side is willing to concede strategic leverage.
Nuclear Program Tensions
Iran’s nuclear ambitions further complicate negotiations. Despite the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which aimed to limit Iran’s nuclear activities in exchange for sanctions relief, Tehran has significantly expanded its uranium enrichment program since the U.S. withdrew from the agreement in 2018. The Biden administration has sought to revive the deal, but mutual distrust and Iran’s continued advancements in nuclear technology have made progress elusive.
‘The fundamental issue is that both sides view these matters as existential,’ Pape said. ‘Until there’s a shift in perception, any peace deal will remain out of reach.’
With tensions simmering and diplomatic channels strained, the prospect of a breakthrough remains uncertain. The U.S. and Iran continue to prioritize national security interests over compromise, leaving little room for resolution in the near term.