Democrats are investing $30 million into state legislative races this year, aiming to influence redistricting ahead of the 2028 elections. The super PAC Forward Majority is spearheading the effort, focusing on two dozen races across five states—Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The strategy hinges on winning as few as eight statehouse seats, which could determine control over redistricting for six U.S. House seats.
Key Battlegrounds
Forward Majority is targeting districts like Arizona's 17th State Senate District, currently held by a Republican but won by Kamala Harris in the 2020 presidential election. The group's CEO, Leslie Martes, emphasized the importance of these races, stating, 'We're in the Wild West now. There are 7,000 legislative districts across the country. Not all of them are up this year, but you've got to make sure that you're playing in the right places with the resources that you have.'
Republican Response
Republicans, meanwhile, are working to solidify their control in states like Georgia and Mississippi. The GOP has already demonstrated its redistricting prowess in Texas, pushing through a mid-cycle redraw that aims to secure five new House seats. Democrats countered in California, but a state Supreme Court decision blocked Virginia's aggressive redistricting effort.
Supreme Court's Role
The Supreme Court's Callais ruling has weakened Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, providing both parties with more latitude to pursue aggressive redistricting strategies. As a result, 10 states ended up with new maps for 2026, while others considered but ultimately avoided mid-cycle redraws due to tight deadlines or cautious state legislatures.
Looking Ahead
Forward Majority predicts that control of legislative chambers representing roughly 42 million Americans could hinge on the outcomes in these targeted districts. The group uses an in-house modeling system called 'Tipping Points' to analyze demographic and political data at the precinct level, identifying their best opportunities. Martes noted, 'We win and lose some of these districts by 64 votes.'
'We think it's one to two seats in Wisconsin, one to three in Pennsylvania, and at least one in Minnesota,' Martes said.
Both parties recognize the critical importance of controlling state legislatures and governorships ahead of the 2030 census, when all 50 states will redraw their district lines.