U.S. gasoline prices are unlikely to return to pre-war levels anytime soon, even if a peace deal with Iran is reached, according to industry analysts. The average price for regular gasoline currently stands at $4.54 per gallon, compared to just under $3 before the conflict, according to AAA data.

Long Road to Recovery

Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, noted that while prices could drop by a third of their wartime increase within one to three months of the Strait of Hormuz reopening, full recovery to pre-war levels might not occur until early to mid 2027. "The next third might take 3-6 months, and we'd finally get back to pre-war prices I'd say right now in early/mid 2027," De Haan stated.

Global Oil Market Turmoil

Rob Smith, a top fuels analyst with S&P Global Energy, emphasized that restoring oil loadings and transit from the Middle East will take time, as will reviving crude production in the Persian Gulf. "Even assuming a true and lasting end to the military conflict, it would still be several months before traffic through the Strait of Hormuz returns to its pre-war level," Smith said.

U.S. gasoline prices would... decline in the months following an end to the war but would be unlikely to return to pre-war levels before the end of the year.

Rystad Energy added that a 30-day phased reopening of the Strait would be an "optimistic scenario," with meaningful volume recovery unlikely before June.

Retail Pricing Dynamics

In the short term, gas stations are still selling higher-cost inventory purchased during peak oil prices, contributing to the delayed price drop. This "rocket and feathers" dynamic means retail fuel costs rise quickly with oil prices but decline slowly even when crude prices fall sharply.

Future Uncertainty

The long-term impact of Iran's ability to threaten the Strait of Hormuz remains a significant unknown. Gregory Brew of the Eurasia Group warned that Iran could credibly deter shippers from resuming traffic in the future. He suggested expanding pipeline networks to bypass the Strait as a potential solution.