The ongoing Iran War is reshaping global economic and geopolitical landscapes in ways that favor Russia and China at the expense of the United States. Despite a tenuous ceasefire, the war's long-term impacts on supply chains, alliances, and economic power are irreversible, according to experts.
Permanent Economic Shifts
Steve Hanke, professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University, succinctly captured the new reality: "Good for Russia, good for China, bad for America." The war has accelerated structural shifts that were already underway, disrupting global commodity supply chains and destabilizing the Gulf region. These disruptions have led to soaring energy prices and heightened economic uncertainty globally.
"You better know all this shit’s going to hit the fan if you go to war," Hanke said. "They clearly didn’t."
Impact on Energy Markets
The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments, has become a focal point of the conflict. With U.S. gasoline prices exceeding $4 per gallon and some countries seeing oil price surges of over 50%, the war's economic toll is profound. Even if the conflict ends, experts caution that relief at the pump will be slow to materialize.
Robert Hormats, former vice chairman of Goldman Sachs International, warned that Iran could emerge as a "wounded bear"—humiliated but still capable of destabilizing the region. This scenario underscores the enduring risks posed by the conflict. As the U.S. contends with these challenges, its global economic leadership continues to erode, handing strategic advantages to its adversaries.