Millions flooded the streets of Tehran and the holy city of Qom this week for the multi-day state funeral of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the regime announced. The body was transferred to Qom on Monday, with further processions planned at other religious sites. The scale of the turnout has drawn international attention less for grief and more for the immediate power vacuum it signals.
Instability at a Critical Juncture
The succession process within the Islamic Republic now begins in earnest. The Assembly of Experts, a clerical body that acts with the approval of the supreme leader’s office, will convene to select Khamenei’s replacement. Policy in Tehran has long been shaped by anti-American hardliners, an establishment whose interests are served by regional instability. American policymakers must ask whether the new supreme leader will pursue a different posture, but historical evidence suggests continuity.
The immediate concern for American workers is the Strait of Hormuz. Any internal power struggle or subsequent adventurism by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps threatens global energy transit, which directly impacts fuel costs for domestic industries and commuters. Washington has no dog in Iran's internal political fight, but the outcome ripples across the American economy.
The Israel Lobby and the War Momentum
The death of a supreme leader is typically a signal for foreign lobbies to push for escalation. Already, voices with ties to pro-Israel groups are framing this transition as a moment of vulnerability to justify a strike on Iran's nuclear program. Such adventurism serves the interests of a foreign ally, not the national interest. The last two decades of Middle Eastern intervention have cost American taxpayers trillions of dollars and thousands of American lives.
No American soldier should be placed in harm’s way to settle scores in a 1,300-year-old religious schism. The financial and human costs of another Middle Eastern war would be borne exclusively by the American working class.
The Trump-era maximum pressure campaign showed that economic nationalism and energy independence are the correct levers. The new administration should resist the usual push for kinetic action from the usual lobbying suspects. Iran's internal transition is a domestic Iranian matter, not an American emergency.