WireAugust 3, 2026 at 9:00 PM
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WASHINGTON, D.C. – The war in Ukraine has morphed into a numbers game defined by corporate efficiency, according to a recent assessment by researchers at the RAND Corporation. Analysts Gian Gentile and Andrew Radin conclude that Kyiv has gained a clear advantage over a numerically superior Russian military not by seizing territory, but by methodically maximizing enemy casualties and economic costs through a strategy of attrition managed with business-sector precision.
The core of Ukraine's approach, as outlined in the analysis, involves the implementation of formal Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) for its military. The doctrine, detailed in former Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov’s war plan, sets specific benchmarks: eliminating 200 Russian troops for each square kilometer of contested territory and inflicting at least 50,000 casualties monthly. The RAND researchers note the military’s “mathematics of war initiative” collects granular data to continuously refine the attrition model.
Central to this system is a proprietary “ePoints” platform, described as a first-of-its-kind battlefield marketplace. Drone operators submit verified combat footage to the government. Different targets carry weighted scores—a single soldier is valued at 12 points. Operators can then redeem accumulated points in a government online store to acquire more drones directly for immediate combat use. This incentive loop has bypassed traditional defense procurement, fueling what retired General David Petraeus termed the “most important military industrial complex in the free world,” a network of thousands of domestic companies now mass-producing millions of drones annually at low cost to the state.
The strategy extends beyond the frontline via deep-strike drone capabilities targeting Russian infrastructure. Recent months have seen Ukrainian drones disrupt oil refineries, weapons factories, and e-commerce logistics hubs, directly transferring the war’s cost onto the civilian economy. While the RAND paper acknowledges this has yet to spur widespread unrest against the Kremlin, the compounding economic strain and unsustainably high casualty rates—currently estimated at 30,000 to 40,000 per month—risk exhausting Moscow’s ability to generate new combat power. “Whether the Russian Army faces a similar fate will depend on Ukraine’s maintenance of this attrition advantage,” the researchers concluded, framing the outcome as a grinding tally sheet where Kyiv runs the clock on Russia’s manpower and economic durability.