A deepening drought across the Great Plains is jeopardizing winter wheat harvests and forcing cattle producers to reconsider herd expansion plans. With nearly 90% of Nebraska and Oklahoma experiencing drought conditions, including over half of Nebraska in "extreme" drought, farmers are grappling with one of the worst growing seasons in recent memory.
Impact on Wheat Crops
Winter wheat, set to mature for summer harvest, is under severe stress due to insufficient moisture. Just 30% of the U.S. winter wheat crop was rated good to excellent as of last week, the lowest since 2023. In key states like Colorado, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas, nearly half of the crop is classified as poor to very poor, signaling potential yield losses.
"Moisture is desperately needed. Rainfall in the coming weeks will likely determine whether the winter wheat crop will be made or broken for 2026," said Brad Rippey, a meteorologist for the USDA.
Cattle Herds Under Pressure
The drought is also impacting cattle producers, already contending with a 75-year low in herd numbers. Dry pastures and hayfields have led to wildfires, burning roughly 1 million acres of grazing land by March. Many farmers are opting to sell cattle rather than retain them for breeding, further delaying herd recovery.
Economic Strain
Higher input costs, particularly for fertilizer, are compounding the crisis. Prices have surged following geopolitical tensions involving Iran, prompting some farmers to cut back on applications. U.S. Representative Frank Lucas, a Republican from Oklahoma, cited both drought and cost as reasons for skipping fertilizer this season.
While global grain supplies may limit price spikes, American farmers face mounting economic pressures. With La Niña fading, hopes for relief hinge on the arrival of El Niño rains later this summer—potentially too late for this year's planting and harvest cycles.