The Strait of Hormuz, long considered a flashpoint for military tensions, is now grappling with a crisis of data integrity. The Automatic Identification System (AIS), the global standard for tracking commercial ships, has effectively failed in the region, leaving insurers, regulators, and governments blind to maritime activity.
Since February 28, when U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran began, commercial traffic through the Strait plummeted by 97%, with over 800 ships idling west of the chokepoint. Of the 142.5 million barrels of oil loaded in March, 128 million never cleared the Strait. By late April, the waterway was effectively closed to commercial traffic, despite ongoing ceasefire efforts.
A System Under Siege
AIS, designed in the 1990s to prevent collisions, relies on ships self-reporting their location and identity. In peacetime, this system works seamlessly. However, in the Strait of Hormuz, it has been weaponized. Ships are disappearing from digital tracking systems only to reappear hours later, having completed transit in silence. GPS spoofing attacks have further compounded the chaos, with tankers’ navigation systems showing them circling inland airports or drifting across the Iranian desert.
"It’s not data anymore; it’s a prayer."
By late April, only 25% of vessels off Bandar Abbas were transmitting AIS signals. Many ships are now operating under the digital identities of scrapped vessels, creating a fleet of "zombie ships." Destination fields, intended to inform port authorities, have been repurposed into desperate pleas for safety, with messages like "India Ship, India Crew" and "China Owner and All Crew" appearing on screens.
The collapse of AIS has led to underreporting of Hormuz traffic by 50%, disrupting global trade and raising questions about the reliability of maritime data systems in conflict zones. As tensions escalate, the Strait of Hormuz serves as a stark reminder of the fragility of the systems underpinning global commerce.