WireApril 11, 2026 at 8:30 PM
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Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz has fueled speculation about the future of the U.S. dollar's dominance in global oil trade, but geopolitical strategist Dan Alamariu believes such fears are overblown. In a recent analysis, Alamariu, chief geopolitical strategist at Alpine Macro, dismissed predictions of a rapid shift to a petroyuan or petroeuro, calling them 'far-fetched.'
Alamariu acknowledged that Iran's ability to maintain control of the Strait of Hormuz represents a 'strategic setback' for the U.S., particularly for President Donald Trump's administration. However, he emphasized that this does not signal the end of American superpower status or the petrodollar. 'The GCC has more reason than ever to keep ties with Washington close, given Beijing’s perceived closeness to Iran,' Alamariu noted, referring to the Gulf Cooperation Council.
'The idea of a petroyuan or petroeuro replacement remains far-fetched.' - Dan Alamariu
Paul Blustein, a scholar at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, reinforced Alamariu's assessment, pointing to factors beyond oil trade that sustain the dollar's dominance. These include the depth, breadth, and liquidity of U.S. financial markets, as well as the dollar's role in cross-border trade and international banking. Blustein highlighted that 'network effects entrench its status; everybody has an incentive to use the dollar because so many others do.'
For now, Iran's selective control of the Strait of Hormuz remains a challenge, but efforts to bypass Tehran's influence are underway. The U.S. Navy is preparing to clear mines from the narrow waterway, and GCC nations are accelerating pipeline construction to reduce dependence on the strait. While Iran's attempts to de-dollarize oil trade with yuan or cryptocurrency tolls have drawn attention, Alamariu argues these measures are not 'meaningfully dollar-bearish.'