WireMarch 24, 2026 at 7:31 PM
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United Airlines has issued a stark warning that airfares could surge by up to 20% if the current spike in oil prices persists, driven largely by geopolitical tensions in Iran. CEO Scott Kirby emphasized that elevated jet fuel costs could lead to a significant increase in ticket prices, potentially softening consumer demand for air travel.
Kirby revealed that United has already reduced capacity by 5% on less profitable routes to mitigate the impact of higher fuel costs. Despite this, demand for air travel remains robust. 'Demand is incredibly strong right now,' Kirby stated, though he cautioned that oil prices are likely to remain elevated for an extended period.
It's reasonable for us to plan for that regardless, because the downside is pretty limited. If we leave a little bit of demand on the table by not flying as much this summer, so what, that's not a big deal.
United Airlines forecasts that oil prices could rise as high as $175 a barrel, remaining above $100 through the end of next year. Kirby described this scenario as a 'stress event' for the airline industry, though he noted it would not be as severe as the COVID-19 pandemic's impact. 'I hope it's better and there's a good chance it's better, but I think it's also reasonable,' Kirby added.
The company has tripled its cash reserves to prepare for potential financial strain, opting against traditional fuel hedging strategies due to its market-moving size. If oil prices remain at current levels, United estimates a $11 billion expense, necessitating a 20% fare increase to break even.
Kirby also addressed the safety of U.S. air travel, calling it 'by far the safest way to travel of any mode of transportation.' He advocated for increased investment in technology and staffing for the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), expressing confidence that these priorities would receive bipartisan support.