Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has projected that Brent crude prices could average more than $100 a barrel through 2026 if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for another month. The waterway, a critical chokepoint for global oil trade, has been largely shut since February following U.S. and Israeli military actions against Iran.
In a report, Goldman analysts noted that the situation remains fluid, particularly given the fragility of the two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran. While Tehran and Washington have temporarily paused hostilities to reopen the strait, details of the agreement remain unclear. Goldman's base-case scenario anticipates a gradual recovery in Persian Gulf exports over the next month, with Brent averaging $82 in Q3 and $80 in Q4. However, if the reopening is delayed, prices could surge to over $100 in the latter half of the year.
"We continue to see the risks to our price forecast as skewed to the upside," the analysts stated.
A prolonged closure or loss of regional production could drive prices even higher, with Brent potentially reaching $120 in Q3 and $115 in Q4. The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly a quarter of the world's seaborne oil trade, making its closure a significant disruption to global energy markets.
U.S. President Donald Trump has reiterated that the strait must remain open, threatening military action if Iran fails to comply. Meanwhile, Iran has designated two safe routes for vessels navigating the waterway. With tensions still simmering, the oil market remains fixated on this geopolitical flashpoint.