Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively blocked, with only a handful of vessels—mostly linked to Iran—navigating the critical waterway. Normal daily transits, typically numbering around 135, have dwindled to just seven as Iran asserts its influence over the region.
Iranian Control and Market Disruptions
Iran’s Ports and Maritime Organization has published two designated safe routes for shipping, citing the potential presence of anti-ship mines in the usual paths. While Iranian-linked vessels have begun to move, three Chinese oil tankers laden with Saudi and Iraqi crude halted near the approach to the strait. Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. CEO Sultan Al Jaber confirmed the waterway remains 'not open,' with access 'restricted, conditioned, and controlled.'
‘Let’s be clear: the Strait of Hormuz is not open.’—Sultan Al Jaber, Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. CEO
Ceasefire Fragility and Global Energy Impact
The fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran has done little to restore flows, leaving global energy markets strained. Even if ships resume transit, the process could take weeks to months for oil to reach buyers. International Maritime Organization Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez warned against Iran’s efforts to impose a toll system, calling it 'unacceptable' and a 'dangerous precedent.'
Efforts to confirm the presence of mines in the strait are underway, with Martin Kelly of EOS Risk Group noting that a mined Traffic Separation Scheme would delay safe passage recovery by months. As tensions persist, President Trump has vowed US military readiness, signaling potential escalation if no deal is reached.